* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 35 33 32 30 29 37 42 52 55 59 53 52 N/A SHEAR DIR 223 226 224 225 223 214 222 218 222 236 252 263 9999 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 143 145 149 154 159 160 160 157 154 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 9 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 N/A 500-300 MB RH 40 36 32 32 33 33 35 40 36 27 24 16 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 5 5 2 0 6 -6 3 7 12 -15 N/A 850 MB VORT 5 3 -12 -22 -32 -39 -27 -27 -34 -20 -41 -73 N/A LAND (KM) 116 135 155 178 202 299 208 39 21 55 -4 128 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.4 21.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.3 85.0 84.5 83.9 82.2 80.2 78.5 76.9 75.5 74.7 73.9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 47 48 50 58 69 70 87 79 85 65 52 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 689 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -26. -37. -48. -56. -63. -68. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -29. -40. -51. -60. -67. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -21. -30. -41. -52. -60. -67. -75. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 3.53 Prob of RI= 6.1% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)