* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 34 33 32 38 42 49 52 61 59 64 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 222 218 216 207 215 218 225 231 244 242 9999 9999 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 142 143 149 155 160 162 159 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 35 29 30 29 30 33 37 39 25 22 23 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 3 0 0 8 -11 3 -9 -1 22 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 1 -12 -25 -29 -45 -46 -34 -45 -25 -33 -54 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 145 150 155 174 300 154 -8 66 59 166 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.8 18.3 19.2 20.4 21.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.0 84.3 81.9 79.7 77.3 75.2 73.4 71.7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 44 43 48 52 66 73 85 89 65 60 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -27. -38. -48. -57. -65. -71. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -34. -45. -55. -65. -72. -78. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -35. -46. -56. -65. -72. -80. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 3.71 Prob of RI= 8.3% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)