* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 49 49 50 51 51 51 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 49 49 50 51 51 51 52 53 53 SHEAR (KTS) 20 36 46 49 47 40 16 28 33 34 38 27 22 SHEAR DIR 324 337 343 349 351 343 315 302 279 278 260 246 246 SST (C) 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 106 108 110 113 114 110 108 106 104 101 97 92 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 -57.2 -57.6 -58.7 -60.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 500-300 MB RH 57 53 48 45 42 44 43 46 56 64 69 62 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -1 -6 -9 -11 -10 -24 -11 -27 0 13 11 0 850 MB VORT 216 233 239 238 236 201 197 170 179 173 183 180 146 LAND (KM) 2138 2220 2304 2407 2442 2255 2124 2099 2118 2185 2236 1998 1782 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.1 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.9 26.4 27.1 27.9 28.9 30.4 32.6 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.1 41.3 40.9 40.5 38.7 37.3 36.9 36.9 37.3 38.0 38.6 38.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 200/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 755 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 39. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.07 SST (C) : Value: 24.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 2.48 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)