* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 45 46 48 49 51 52 53 52 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 45 46 48 49 51 52 53 52 SHEAR (KTS) 44 45 47 45 34 32 25 29 31 33 36 35 39 SHEAR DIR 343 349 351 355 348 343 320 310 290 262 249 237 245 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 114 114 114 114 114 113 110 106 102 99 95 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -55.5 -56.0 -55.8 -56.9 -57.8 -58.2 -58.8 -59.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 500-300 MB RH 43 41 43 45 47 54 49 50 52 65 71 79 70 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 -6 -6 -4 3 -16 -26 -2 -9 17 34 20 850 MB VORT 230 236 235 217 194 188 176 175 178 154 176 167 152 LAND (KM) 2422 2434 2376 2298 2219 2151 2183 2238 2308 2360 2158 1974 1771 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.8 28.4 30.4 32.2 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 40.4 39.9 39.2 38.4 37.7 38.0 38.5 39.1 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 14 CX,CY: 0/-13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 682 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 43.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.17 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 2.40 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)