* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 50 49 50 50 50 49 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 50 49 50 50 50 49 50 51 53 54 SHEAR (KTS) 50 48 39 36 31 22 30 36 37 39 41 37 30 SHEAR DIR 350 353 351 345 339 326 315 305 277 255 233 231 225 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 24.7 23.9 23.3 22.4 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 115 115 114 114 113 108 102 99 94 89 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.4 -55.0 -55.7 -55.0 -56.7 -57.9 -58.9 -59.2 -60.3 -60.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 500-300 MB RH 38 42 43 45 50 50 49 54 64 75 77 76 76 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -7 -2 -5 -1 -7 -16 -19 -21 30 39 28 26 850 MB VORT 230 233 217 201 195 184 181 166 167 178 176 176 197 LAND (KM) 2450 2368 2288 2217 2145 2107 2139 2177 2232 2298 2098 1901 1650 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 25.8 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.4 26.0 27.4 29.6 31.7 33.9 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.6 39.9 39.1 38.4 37.7 37.3 37.6 37.9 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.2 38.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 170/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ -9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 748 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 20. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 41.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.03 SST (C) : Value: 25.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.20 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 64.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 2.82 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)