* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 44 43 41 40 40 40 42 43 45 45 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 44 43 41 40 40 40 42 43 45 45 SHEAR (KTS) 47 44 43 40 37 30 35 41 37 39 43 43 40 SHEAR DIR 351 350 350 345 344 317 293 282 268 253 239 239 236 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.4 23.8 22.9 22.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 117 117 115 112 109 106 102 96 93 91 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -56.9 -58.3 -58.7 -60.6 -61.4 -61.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 39 41 40 42 41 39 45 53 68 72 75 67 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 -14 -8 -18 -16 -43 -8 -9 17 15 5 9 850 MB VORT 232 231 216 215 213 200 179 160 148 153 146 110 100 LAND (KM) 2422 2394 2366 2340 2314 2320 2345 2361 2344 2138 1835 1598 1435 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.8 24.7 25.4 26.6 27.5 28.6 30.6 33.4 35.4 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.2 39.9 39.7 39.4 39.4 39.5 39.5 39.4 39.6 40.3 41.3 42.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 160/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 752 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.01 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 2.22 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)