* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 50 48 45 41 40 39 39 39 40 39 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 50 48 45 41 40 39 39 39 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 42 42 38 37 39 36 44 43 43 40 43 38 43 SHEAR DIR 350 343 343 341 343 312 299 275 257 235 229 237 252 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.6 22.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 118 118 115 113 109 105 102 100 96 92 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.9 -57.7 -58.1 -58.0 -58.4 -59.8 -60.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 38 36 44 47 48 40 46 58 71 72 74 67 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -10 14 -18 -23 -40 -15 -12 25 44 20 8 -13 850 MB VORT 215 192 191 191 177 181 167 147 150 166 191 155 84 LAND (KM) 2375 2343 2311 2302 2292 2308 2329 2370 2292 2149 2032 1805 1527 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.3 23.8 24.1 24.3 25.2 26.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 31.3 33.4 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.7 39.4 39.3 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.9 40.2 40.4 40.9 41.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 160/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ -7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 712 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -54 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -29. -29. -29. -29. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. 34. 33. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.07 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.33 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)