* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 52 48 45 42 40 40 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 52 48 45 42 40 40 38 38 37 SHEAR (KTS) 42 36 36 35 31 35 39 41 39 35 38 34 40 SHEAR DIR 341 343 344 344 332 308 286 271 252 235 247 260 266 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 117 117 117 116 114 111 106 102 98 95 94 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -55.3 -56.5 -56.8 -57.2 -58.0 -59.1 -60.7 -60.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 35 42 47 47 45 45 51 63 69 73 71 63 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 -1 -14 -18 -37 -35 -7 0 31 37 17 15 10 850 MB VORT 206 202 193 187 191 177 150 143 142 153 146 90 86 LAND (KM) 2265 2248 2231 2221 2211 2215 2242 2256 2287 2225 1966 1809 1724 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.6 28.1 30.1 32.5 33.9 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.8 38.6 38.5 38.4 38.4 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.8 39.4 39.9 40.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 105/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 671 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -67 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 30. 30. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -20. -21. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -22. -22. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.81 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)