* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 57 55 52 49 47 45 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 57 55 52 49 47 45 44 42 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 34 34 36 31 34 39 40 41 41 43 41 46 41 SHEAR DIR 339 336 342 330 316 297 270 252 240 248 254 260 266 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 116 115 114 113 110 106 103 100 98 96 96 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -55.6 -56.8 -57.5 -57.7 -58.8 -60.2 -60.5 -60.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 37 43 47 43 40 47 55 65 62 66 63 61 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -18 -17 -18 -16 -2 -10 -5 16 15 14 12 0 850 MB VORT 221 217 209 213 210 199 173 155 172 157 108 78 54 LAND (KM) 2264 2249 2235 2238 2241 2268 2283 2328 2240 2070 1901 1772 1676 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.1 27.0 28.2 29.7 31.2 32.6 33.6 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.8 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.3 39.8 40.5 41.2 42.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 125/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 731 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 23. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 33. 32. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 2.92 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)