* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 57 56 53 52 51 51 51 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 57 56 53 52 51 51 51 51 50 49 SHEAR (KTS) 35 37 27 32 32 37 37 35 33 37 40 39 37 SHEAR DIR 342 347 335 319 314 297 265 242 236 250 258 260 253 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 116 116 114 110 107 104 102 100 98 96 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -55.1 -56.0 -56.7 -56.7 -57.6 -58.4 -60.0 -59.7 -60.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 41 47 46 43 44 53 62 64 64 72 67 75 76 MO FLX (M/S/D) -13 -16 -26 -27 -15 -2 10 5 17 16 18 10 14 850 MB VORT 226 218 223 214 214 195 182 184 194 152 107 92 82 LAND (KM) 2261 2256 2252 2264 2277 2284 2320 2373 2251 2119 1988 1858 1719 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.8 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 31.8 32.8 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.9 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.0 39.2 39.5 39.7 40.0 40.3 41.0 42.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 688 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -23. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 21. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 3.17 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)