* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 48 45 41 39 38 38 38 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 48 45 41 39 38 38 38 36 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 35 28 34 37 41 39 42 40 44 50 51 51 52 SHEAR DIR 344 331 327 318 314 280 257 242 249 256 267 264 271 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.4 22.7 22.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 119 118 114 109 104 102 99 95 93 91 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.9 -56.9 -56.9 -57.6 -58.9 -60.1 -61.1 -62.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 40 41 41 41 44 51 59 55 71 74 72 71 75 MO FLX (M/S/D) -10 -18 -16 -2 8 0 -6 10 23 6 -5 5 5 850 MB VORT 221 217 203 190 181 179 181 180 137 123 70 38 23 LAND (KM) 2291 2291 2291 2286 2282 2260 2269 2274 2286 2210 2112 2078 2096 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.8 23.7 24.0 24.2 25.4 27.3 28.7 29.7 30.9 32.5 33.7 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.6 38.3 38.1 37.6 36.7 35.5 33.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -59 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. -30. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 29. 27. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -19. -20. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 2.71 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)