* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 45 41 37 34 34 31 28 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 45 41 37 34 34 31 28 22 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 37 36 40 45 37 39 38 51 61 63 71 63 SHEAR DIR 337 329 321 315 303 272 255 249 257 269 275 286 293 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.4 23.6 22.9 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 119 118 114 106 100 96 94 92 91 89 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -56.8 -57.4 -57.8 -58.3 -59.0 -58.0 -58.8 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 34 36 39 45 44 55 59 57 61 59 43 29 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) -15 -24 -10 14 15 -1 4 0 12 -11 0 -35 0 850 MB VORT 214 193 174 161 152 159 167 141 96 49 52 32 21 LAND (KM) 2321 2305 2290 2265 2241 2161 2065 1997 1882 1645 1277 985 781 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.8 24.1 25.5 27.7 29.8 31.4 31.9 31.4 31.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.4 39.2 39.0 38.7 37.8 36.4 34.9 33.0 30.0 26.0 22.5 19.6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 205/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 714 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -34. -38. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -18. -21. -25. -31. -38. -44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -21. -24. -27. -33. -39. -45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.11 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 64.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.43 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)