* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 38 35 33 32 29 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 38 35 33 32 29 26 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 43 40 36 39 37 42 44 48 56 64 73 78 72 SHEAR DIR 326 322 313 294 281 256 244 250 262 268 278 288 295 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.2 24.5 23.8 23.1 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 119 117 112 106 102 98 95 95 95 94 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -56.2 -56.8 -57.7 -58.6 -59.4 -59.5 -60.0 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 33 38 45 42 45 50 56 68 77 75 64 60 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) -50 -28 -4 11 -5 -22 10 22 0 14 -13 13 -10 850 MB VORT 205 191 171 184 189 175 157 129 59 -5 -56 -76 -73 LAND (KM) 2361 2336 2310 2276 2242 2157 2084 2035 1926 1705 1343 1102 994 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.9 24.5 26.0 27.7 29.4 30.8 31.1 30.2 29.7 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 39.7 39.4 39.1 38.7 37.7 36.6 35.5 33.8 31.1 27.4 24.9 23.6 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. -39. -45. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 23. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 20. 17. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -22. -30. -40. -47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -21. -24. -32. -40. -49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 2.38 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)