* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 40 37 34 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 40 37 34 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 44 38 38 39 39 38 39 48 51 64 79 84 76 SHEAR DIR 324 317 299 291 276 255 248 261 265 275 281 291 289 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.5 23.8 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 119 118 114 106 102 99 98 96 95 95 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.9 -56.9 -58.9 -59.3 -60.0 -60.5 -61.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 32 40 43 44 44 49 57 66 74 69 51 55 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) -33 -8 -10 -12 -18 4 14 14 2 -33 1 -1 -4 850 MB VORT 194 172 170 170 158 158 125 81 24 -41 -84 -65 -52 LAND (KM) 2357 2314 2269 2229 2190 2089 2002 1956 1863 1643 1302 1101 1027 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.5 24.0 25.4 27.5 29.0 29.8 29.9 29.3 29.1 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 39.4 39.0 38.6 38.2 37.1 35.8 34.8 33.4 31.0 27.4 25.2 24.3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 180/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 689 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -35. -43. -49. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 16. 13. 11. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26. -37. -47. -55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -29. -39. -48. -56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.07 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.13 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.29 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)