* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 37 34 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 37 34 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 43 36 36 38 40 43 51 60 63 75 66 55 52 SHEAR DIR 317 301 285 270 264 247 253 261 263 266 265 264 264 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 24.8 23.6 23.4 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 118 117 109 100 99 102 102 104 105 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -56.5 -57.9 -58.2 -58.3 -58.4 -57.1 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 500-300 MB RH 41 38 40 42 40 49 57 62 67 75 79 76 77 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 -28 -22 -9 -9 24 0 -19 15 41 0 -8 850 MB VORT 149 147 146 135 121 99 85 31 7 -33 -2 -3 20 LAND (KM) 2318 2269 2221 2137 2058 1849 1671 1634 1707 1760 1827 1919 1957 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.4 24.1 26.4 28.7 29.3 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.0 38.5 37.7 36.9 34.5 31.8 31.2 32.3 33.0 33.8 34.9 35.3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -26. -33. -38. -44. -49. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -27. -34. -42. -48. -51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -37. -43. -48. -53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 38.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 2.39 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)