* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 39 39 38 41 44 54 61 69 70 74 71 67 SHEAR DIR 302 290 279 273 261 251 258 271 276 292 302 292 289 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 114 110 102 98 96 96 95 95 95 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -56.9 -57.2 -58.4 -58.2 -59.9 -60.7 -60.9 -61.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 500-300 MB RH 39 42 49 51 52 58 55 51 43 36 43 63 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -22 -15 0 2 5 21 -14 -4 -73 -26 11 45 850 MB VORT 148 129 126 119 110 68 51 41 19 -31 -67 -66 -69 LAND (KM) 2214 2128 2045 1928 1823 1580 1332 1170 1065 982 939 940 937 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.5 25.6 27.6 28.8 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.4 37.6 36.8 35.6 34.4 31.3 28.0 26.0 24.9 23.9 23.3 23.2 22.9 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -22. -29. -37. -44. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 26. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -26. -29. -36. -43. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. -32. -37. -43. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.08 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.23 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 1.96 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)