* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 36 32 34 38 49 66 61 62 57 68 65 57 SHEAR DIR 283 277 271 257 249 251 264 273 260 242 232 235 245 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.3 22.5 21.9 19.4 19.9 20.6 20.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 114 110 105 99 94 91 82 84 86 87 86 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 -56.8 -57.4 -57.0 -56.2 -56.8 -57.3 -57.9 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 49 47 49 52 53 52 40 40 45 44 32 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) -15 -11 -4 -5 9 16 0 0 9 0 -23 -17 -17 850 MB VORT 126 131 119 116 86 59 36 141 126 100 63 28 -12 LAND (KM) 2098 1995 1899 1768 1653 1362 1042 530 16 -452 -829 -854 -800 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.8 27.0 28.5 29.9 29.8 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 36.3 35.3 33.8 32.3 28.5 24.1 18.0 11.0 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 80/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 696 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -32. -39. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -31. -40. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -33. -41. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 78.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.47 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.13 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 2.23 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)