* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 35 35 34 37 44 56 63 60 54 53 50 47 N/A SHEAR DIR 278 275 263 255 256 260 269 264 252 240 258 267 9999 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.8 22.3 19.9 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 108 104 100 96 93 84 82 83 84 84 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -56.0 -56.4 -57.0 -57.1 -57.4 -56.7 -57.0 -57.0 -58.9 -60.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 48 47 52 56 56 56 48 47 45 28 22 29 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 -7 -2 -3 4 6 -6 13 25 -2 -12 -4 N/A 850 MB VORT 118 104 104 66 41 33 64 107 111 77 -9 -67 N/A LAND (KM) 1923 1800 1691 1497 1326 837 333 24 -200 -460 -586 -566 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.1 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.5 30.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.6 34.3 33.0 30.7 28.3 22.4 16.6 11.6 8.1 5.2 3.6 2.5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -18. -22. -27. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -19. -24. -32. -41. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -34. -42. -49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 24.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.42 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.17 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 2.46 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)