* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 29 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 33 36 43 47 50 66 64 63 61 60 60 43 N/A SHEAR DIR 275 259 258 262 263 267 269 249 231 228 235 248 9999 SST (C) 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.3 19.9 19.5 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 106 102 99 96 93 84 83 84 85 85 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -57.0 -57.3 -56.6 -56.5 -56.5 -56.9 -57.7 -59.8 -60.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 53 54 56 53 49 46 46 50 51 33 38 38 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -6 -7 0 1 8 19 29 12 -17 -5 15 N/A 850 MB VORT 112 88 58 36 35 57 124 132 142 62 -41 -111 N/A LAND (KM) 1754 1575 1420 1242 1073 543 71 -370 -679 -657 -549 -430 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.2 27.3 28.0 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.9 32.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.8 31.8 29.7 27.4 25.1 18.9 11.8 6.1 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 20 CX,CY: 16/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -18. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -35. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 20. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -20. -26. -34. -44. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -23. -28. -36. -45. -54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 42.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.01 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 35.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 2.16 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)