* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DELTA 11/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 46 45 43 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 45 43 37 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 38 48 56 60 64 67 63 60 61 58 53 29 N/A SHEAR DIR 262 258 263 266 266 271 258 241 228 231 235 267 9999 SST (C) 24.3 23.7 23.0 22.7 22.4 21.6 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.2 20.5 20.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 97 95 94 90 81 83 85 85 86 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.5 -57.3 -57.8 -57.2 -56.7 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 -57.5 -58.7 -59.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 55 59 61 59 57 47 53 56 43 35 41 51 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -9 2 5 0 16 12 21 -13 34 -30 2 N/A 850 MB VORT 106 57 39 36 33 105 148 167 137 59 -8 -66 N/A LAND (KM) 1615 1433 1266 1002 739 212 -101 -536 -622 -558 -428 -299 N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.2 30.8 32.0 33.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.0 29.6 27.2 24.1 20.9 14.6 8.9 4.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 23 CX,CY: 16/ 16 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 644 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -26. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -26. -28. -31. -33. -39. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 19. 22. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -14. -22. -29. -37. -45. -54. -63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. 0. -2. -8. -16. -24. -31. -39. -47. -56. -64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 53.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 23.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)