* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DELTA 11/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 58 54 49 38 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 58 54 49 38 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 44 53 60 64 66 65 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 260 266 268 269 268 252 232 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.0 20.6 19.5 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 95 94 92 86 83 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.6 -57.9 -57.8 -57.2 -56.5 -55.7 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 59 60 60 61 54 49 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 3 -2 4 27 24 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 73 41 44 34 68 139 149 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1465 1248 1040 781 545 145 -273 -659 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 27.1 24.4 21.4 18.3 12.6 7.3 3.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 23 CX,CY: 18/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 68 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -49. -52. -55. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -6. -11. -22. -33. -43. -52. -61. -70. -79. -86. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -2. -6. -11. -22. -33. -43. -52. -61. -70. -79. -86. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 57.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 22.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)