* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DELTA 11/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 46 41 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 46 41 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 48 59 62 63 61 65 54 56 54 59 48 36 N/A SHEAR DIR 256 263 267 269 266 259 249 237 235 248 265 268 9999 SST (C) 23.0 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.9 19.8 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 94 92 91 84 82 84 85 85 85 85 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -56.9 -56.7 -56.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -56.8 -59.6 -60.0 -62.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 63 65 61 58 54 47 38 32 26 37 41 31 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 24 10 6 3 15 0 1 0 -27 -25 N/A 850 MB VORT 52 42 37 66 114 145 156 118 51 -50 -102 -118 N/A LAND (KM) 1293 1091 889 656 429 95 -292 -658 -741 -687 -590 -471 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.5 31.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.4 24.9 22.4 19.7 16.9 11.6 7.0 3.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 49 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -35. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -40. -44. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 15. 19. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 11. 8. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -30. -41. -51. -60. -69. -78. -83. -89. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -19. -30. -41. -51. -60. -69. -78. -83. -89. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 58.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 22.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)