* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DELTA 11/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 35 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 59 64 67 63 67 64 62 65 49 51 48 39 N/A SHEAR DIR 259 266 269 268 266 256 238 231 242 261 270 256 9999 SST (C) 22.5 22.3 21.8 21.8 20.9 19.2 20.0 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 93 91 91 87 82 84 86 85 85 85 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.8 -56.4 -55.9 -55.6 -55.1 -55.2 -55.7 -57.6 -59.6 -61.7 -62.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 60 60 56 50 45 49 54 43 31 34 39 34 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 18 7 7 4 26 8 44 0 9 -50 -5 N/A 850 MB VORT 57 51 92 127 150 166 123 86 39 -58 -108 -126 N/A LAND (KM) 1094 861 649 384 218 -228 -674 -763 -741 -687 -590 -461 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.5 31.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.7 21.9 19.1 16.1 13.0 7.5 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 25 CX,CY: 23/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -32. -34. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. -44. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 15. 19. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 8. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -30. -40. -52. -60. -67. -74. -80. -86. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -15. -20. -30. -40. -52. -60. -67. -74. -80. -86. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 64.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)