* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DELTA 11/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 41 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 47 41 33 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 61 62 65 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 267 266 261 253 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 21.4 21.3 20.6 18.7 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 89 86 80 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 54 48 47 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 16 22 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 122 160 179 185 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 370 256 1 -287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.6 15.7 12.7 9.7 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 26 CX,CY: 26/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 697 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -37. -39. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -37. -41. -45. -50. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -30. -39. -48. -56. -62. -70. -77. -85. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -14. -20. -30. -39. -48. -56. -62. -70. -77. -85. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DELTA 11/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 63.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 20.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)