* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 50 56 60 65 69 70 70 69 66 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 50 56 60 65 69 70 70 69 66 SHEAR (KTS) 25 23 24 25 22 28 22 18 23 27 25 27 26 SHEAR DIR 218 228 230 234 237 242 237 284 277 274 267 249 237 SST (C) 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 101 101 100 100 98 96 95 93 91 90 90 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -57.8 -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -57.1 -56.4 -57.1 -58.0 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 59 60 60 60 55 57 57 59 54 52 50 49 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 5 0 -8 -7 -2 2 0 -5 -6 -7 0 6 850 MB VORT 195 207 215 224 207 193 179 170 165 107 69 77 93 LAND (KM) 1853 1817 1782 1754 1729 1697 1624 1544 1475 1401 1310 1290 1405 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.5 32.1 32.8 33.3 34.1 35.1 35.9 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.2 48.9 49.6 50.2 51.1 52.1 53.1 53.6 52.5 50.3 47.4 43.7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 691 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. 36. 35. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 30. 34. 35. 35. 34. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)