* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 53 58 62 63 63 61 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 53 58 62 63 63 61 58 56 52 SHEAR (KTS) 23 25 23 18 17 20 29 33 35 32 31 25 24 SHEAR DIR 231 239 248 247 248 286 288 277 279 279 276 264 265 SST (C) 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 99 98 98 97 97 98 101 98 95 95 94 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -54.8 -54.1 -55.2 -55.4 -56.7 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 60 58 59 60 59 55 51 46 46 46 48 44 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -12 -1 0 0 0 -8 850 MB VORT 204 200 197 192 181 157 141 129 100 66 55 55 46 LAND (KM) 1699 1678 1660 1645 1619 1558 1540 1631 1731 1724 1752 1811 1907 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.0 31.4 31.2 32.1 32.8 33.0 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.9 51.7 52.5 53.3 54.8 55.7 54.8 51.0 46.3 43.4 41.6 40.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 24. 23. 20. 17. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 21. 18. 16. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 2.95 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)