* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 11/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 57 60 62 62 60 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 57 60 62 62 60 59 58 56 SHEAR (KTS) 24 28 21 20 18 23 28 33 31 31 25 27 26 SHEAR DIR 231 239 246 239 264 288 288 278 275 268 264 261 242 SST (C) 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 99 98 98 98 96 95 94 92 91 88 87 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 -55.6 -55.6 -57.6 -58.1 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 500-300 MB RH 57 60 58 60 60 60 58 56 50 47 56 57 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 3 -1 0 1 1 0 -11 -7 0 2 4 -3 850 MB VORT 211 201 194 188 177 177 160 136 102 76 79 75 75 LAND (KM) 1711 1699 1690 1671 1639 1594 1544 1504 1502 1486 1477 1502 1505 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.6 31.6 32.0 32.8 33.2 33.4 34.1 35.5 36.4 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 51.6 52.4 53.2 53.9 54.0 53.0 51.7 49.9 47.2 43.6 41.4 40.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 615 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. 13. 11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 11/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 23.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 3.00 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)