* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 11/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 53 56 56 56 54 55 55 51 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 53 56 56 56 54 55 55 51 SHEAR (KTS) 29 21 22 22 20 25 32 35 31 30 28 28 31 SHEAR DIR 241 247 238 247 259 295 285 282 271 268 259 248 226 SST (C) 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.9 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.5 20.3 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 99 99 98 96 96 95 93 91 90 85 80 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.8 -55.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -57.1 -58.8 -61.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 0 500-300 MB RH 61 61 61 59 61 59 55 53 49 48 59 59 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 1 3 0 1 3 -10 -4 1 0 2 14 850 MB VORT 191 188 194 165 176 166 160 115 73 62 67 50 -42 LAND (KM) 1705 1708 1712 1678 1644 1579 1565 1537 1492 1458 1486 1410 1276 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.4 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.5 32.7 33.1 33.8 34.8 36.0 38.3 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.0 52.4 52.6 52.8 52.4 51.1 49.8 48.2 45.8 42.4 40.2 39.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 657 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -26. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 16. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 9. 10. 10. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 11/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 23.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 2.68 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)