* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 11/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 50 51 51 49 48 48 48 45 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 50 51 51 49 48 48 48 45 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 19 18 23 28 33 29 33 25 31 31 34 SHEAR DIR 238 238 247 274 290 289 278 273 264 247 235 228 223 SST (C) 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.2 21.8 21.6 20.8 19.8 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 99 98 98 97 95 93 91 90 87 84 80 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -56.1 -58.3 -59.4 -59.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 500-300 MB RH 61 59 56 57 54 52 52 50 48 51 54 59 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 2 0 0 0 -14 -3 0 5 13 9 22 850 MB VORT 203 193 173 188 187 164 116 76 35 51 56 75 28 LAND (KM) 1724 1714 1687 1665 1642 1595 1514 1452 1432 1397 1343 1337 1388 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.5 31.6 32.2 33.1 33.9 34.7 36.0 37.7 39.4 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 52.8 53.4 53.6 53.8 53.4 51.9 49.6 46.9 44.3 42.2 40.0 37.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 11/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 2.62 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)