* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 11/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 53 53 52 50 48 46 45 44 40 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 53 53 52 50 48 46 45 44 40 SHEAR (KTS) 24 20 18 24 28 30 35 32 27 25 25 21 28 SHEAR DIR 242 280 292 284 295 284 286 271 270 250 250 230 231 SST (C) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.0 21.4 21.1 20.5 19.8 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 100 99 98 96 95 92 89 88 86 84 80 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 -54.4 -55.0 -56.1 -58.4 -58.2 -59.4 -60.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 500-300 MB RH 55 49 50 54 56 51 48 51 54 57 56 49 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 2 -1 -7 0 -7 0 2 7 7 7 11 850 MB VORT 167 146 154 164 150 137 93 75 51 42 47 12 -66 LAND (KM) 1736 1725 1714 1665 1615 1578 1549 1440 1300 1277 1388 1444 1467 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.8 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.5 32.9 34.2 36.1 37.4 37.9 39.2 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.0 54.5 54.4 54.3 52.6 50.5 48.6 46.5 44.0 41.1 38.6 36.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 744 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 11/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 23.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 2.87 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)