* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 11/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 62 62 58 53 48 42 36 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 62 62 58 53 48 42 36 35 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 20 22 24 28 29 38 31 33 28 34 36 36 28 SHEAR DIR 271 289 294 291 291 279 274 262 242 231 215 220 234 SST (C) 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.1 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.4 20.4 19.8 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 100 99 99 98 94 91 91 89 86 84 82 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -56.2 -57.3 -59.1 -59.6 -60.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 500-300 MB RH 50 50 54 54 52 46 46 41 43 53 59 55 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 0 -1 -9 -6 -6 -6 0 9 10 30 23 4 850 MB VORT 162 169 173 172 155 120 80 59 48 45 77 69 63 LAND (KM) 1754 1757 1728 1704 1680 1613 1488 1428 1389 1362 1366 1444 1566 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.4 30.6 31.0 31.3 32.2 33.5 34.4 35.3 36.5 38.1 39.1 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.0 53.6 52.1 50.1 48.2 46.3 44.0 41.2 38.7 36.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 240/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 897 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -22. -24. -25. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -25. -26. -27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 11/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 23.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 40.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 2.97 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)