* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 57 55 49 44 39 35 32 32 31 29 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 57 55 49 44 39 35 32 32 31 29 SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 28 31 33 38 34 30 30 30 32 26 17 SHEAR DIR 277 289 293 293 284 282 266 264 235 230 223 231 235 SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.3 22.6 22.1 22.0 21.6 20.9 20.2 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 102 100 100 99 95 92 92 90 87 85 82 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 -56.4 -57.5 -58.1 -58.0 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 47 53 53 48 44 44 40 41 46 52 51 51 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -4 -1 -9 0 -5 0 6 15 13 8 0 850 MB VORT 159 162 168 159 146 106 64 61 74 81 100 94 65 LAND (KM) 1750 1772 1795 1784 1756 1648 1565 1519 1511 1530 1572 1651 1760 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.9 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.8 35.8 36.9 37.9 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 53.7 53.6 53.0 52.4 50.5 48.8 46.8 44.4 41.9 39.4 36.9 34.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 822 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -14. -18. -23. -26. -27. -28. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -28. -29. -31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.64 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)