* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/01/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 48 45 40 37 35 35 34 31 27 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 48 45 40 37 35 35 34 31 27 SHEAR (KTS) 20 25 29 33 33 31 31 22 27 22 27 21 21 SHEAR DIR 283 288 290 288 284 281 273 252 236 222 220 219 239 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.4 20.8 20.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 102 101 99 96 93 92 91 89 87 86 83 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -55.0 -55.8 -57.1 -56.8 -58.2 -59.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 51 50 51 48 47 46 47 45 45 48 40 42 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 3 -2 -7 -4 0 4 9 2 9 3 1 850 MB VORT 179 167 162 157 117 84 56 57 62 82 72 10 -44 LAND (KM) 1847 1824 1794 1740 1690 1613 1569 1563 1595 1635 1676 1755 1884 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.3 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.7 33.6 34.4 35.0 35.7 36.6 37.4 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 52.1 51.5 50.7 49.8 48.1 46.2 44.1 42.1 40.1 38.1 35.9 33.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 75/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 691 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -20. -22. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -21. -24. -28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/01/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.18 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 2.58 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)