* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 49 46 44 43 42 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 49 46 44 43 42 41 38 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 27 28 28 33 34 30 22 20 19 27 25 23 16 SHEAR DIR 282 292 287 285 287 275 274 253 232 209 214 221 239 SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.3 19.7 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 99 96 95 92 91 91 88 87 85 83 80 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -56.5 -57.1 -58.3 -58.5 -59.0 -61.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 54 52 50 52 54 52 53 49 47 45 49 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 1 -1 0 0 4 3 0 4 9 0 850 MB VORT 158 161 144 119 102 81 64 68 54 31 -2 -37 -73 LAND (KM) 1758 1708 1663 1615 1572 1511 1503 1514 1543 1588 1639 1731 1879 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.5 33.0 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.3 37.0 37.8 38.6 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 51.1 50.2 49.4 48.5 46.7 44.6 42.6 40.8 39.0 37.2 35.0 32.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -34. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -15. -18. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -17. -20. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 23.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 2.67 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)