* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 54 50 46 44 40 36 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 54 50 46 44 40 36 31 28 25 SHEAR (KTS) 28 30 34 36 29 29 22 23 24 31 26 20 22 SHEAR DIR 282 286 283 282 277 268 255 243 215 217 220 239 254 SST (C) 23.5 23.3 22.9 22.5 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.2 20.5 19.8 19.2 18.3 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 96 94 92 91 90 88 86 84 82 79 77 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -55.7 -56.2 -57.7 -57.4 -59.1 -60.6 -62.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 52 49 49 51 48 49 51 46 49 45 48 51 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 2 0 -3 0 3 9 7 20 18 8 -11 850 MB VORT 171 142 119 102 84 55 61 72 49 5 -10 -31 -52 LAND (KM) 1706 1654 1606 1546 1491 1427 1408 1413 1454 1525 1603 1711 1799 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.2 33.9 35.0 35.8 36.8 37.9 38.9 39.8 40.8 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 50.5 49.6 48.7 47.8 46.1 44.5 42.4 40.0 37.7 35.7 33.4 31.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 712 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -40. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -23. -27. -31. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 22.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 2.81 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)