* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 47 43 41 39 36 33 31 29 25 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 47 43 41 39 36 33 31 29 25 SHEAR (KTS) 31 32 36 31 28 25 27 24 31 25 18 22 28 SHEAR DIR 285 283 278 276 266 267 236 223 217 220 238 237 294 SST (C) 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.6 21.3 20.6 20.0 19.1 18.1 17.1 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 99 96 94 92 91 90 89 86 84 82 79 77 76 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.4 -56.2 -57.4 -58.1 -58.7 -59.7 -61.4 -62.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 49 49 53 49 46 49 50 53 46 42 47 46 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 3 0 -2 0 0 9 8 7 12 4 -16 32 850 MB VORT 144 116 100 76 68 54 61 64 27 -16 -9 -32 -112 LAND (KM) 1658 1592 1531 1481 1436 1377 1348 1374 1439 1520 1592 1731 1691 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.6 33.3 34.0 34.6 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.9 40.1 41.5 42.2 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 49.8 48.9 48.0 47.1 45.5 43.7 41.5 39.0 36.6 34.5 32.2 29.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 748 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -37. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 22.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 39.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.38 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)