* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/02/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 43 39 36 33 29 25 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 43 39 36 33 29 25 24 21 19 SHEAR (KTS) 34 34 32 32 30 23 22 27 29 20 22 28 25 SHEAR DIR 283 280 275 270 272 249 241 210 218 218 216 278 343 SST (C) 22.9 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 20.8 20.2 19.6 18.9 18.0 17.1 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 96 94 92 91 91 90 87 85 83 81 79 77 76 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.8 -57.1 -57.5 -58.1 -59.0 -60.0 -63.2 -65.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 50 48 46 47 51 53 48 45 46 47 43 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 3 1 4 9 5 16 1 -11 -13 1 850 MB VORT 119 90 69 63 47 45 55 35 -27 -18 -41 -136 -186 LAND (KM) 1603 1543 1489 1443 1402 1372 1380 1414 1463 1537 1635 1746 1711 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.2 36.3 37.4 38.4 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.2 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 48.9 47.9 47.1 46.2 44.2 42.0 40.0 38.1 36.1 34.0 32.0 30.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 773 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -38. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -2. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -25. -28. -30. -32. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -26. -30. -31. -34. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/02/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 22.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.10 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.50 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)