* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 54 52 48 46 43 38 33 28 23 20 V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 54 52 48 46 43 38 33 28 23 20 SHEAR (KTS) 34 33 31 29 26 27 25 28 31 25 27 31 30 SHEAR DIR 278 278 273 272 270 242 230 214 218 224 246 306 299 SST (C) 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.1 20.2 19.4 18.4 17.5 16.7 15.7 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 94 92 91 91 90 88 85 82 80 78 76 75 74 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -55.3 -55.4 -57.1 -57.7 -58.7 -59.5 -59.6 -60.5 -61.1 -62.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 54 49 48 52 52 53 55 50 50 54 52 46 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 3 11 13 0 24 15 -21 46 11 850 MB VORT 101 69 58 50 49 46 45 32 -26 -33 -89 -106 -101 LAND (KM) 1533 1484 1442 1401 1367 1331 1343 1388 1483 1580 1661 1751 1559 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.0 34.6 35.3 36.0 37.3 38.6 40.0 41.2 42.2 43.0 44.0 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 47.9 46.9 46.0 45.0 43.1 40.9 38.6 36.2 34.2 32.6 30.8 28.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 723 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -31. -37. -43. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 27. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -21. -25. -30. -35. -38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. -40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 31.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 2.99 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)