* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 54 49 45 41 36 33 28 23 19 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 54 49 45 41 36 33 28 23 19 SHEAR (KTS) 35 31 29 29 25 32 33 33 30 29 37 24 24 SHEAR DIR 276 271 269 265 257 245 226 228 231 236 275 311 309 SST (C) 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.5 20.8 20.0 19.1 18.3 17.2 16.1 15.6 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 91 90 90 87 84 82 79 77 75 74 74 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.8 -57.3 -58.2 -59.3 -60.5 -61.9 -63.0 -64.0 -65.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 49 45 50 50 48 53 50 54 53 62 53 50 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 3 4 16 21 11 2 15 17 22 -13 850 MB VORT 84 68 56 59 55 50 52 17 -2 -49 -153 -178 -220 LAND (KM) 1489 1453 1423 1399 1381 1377 1414 1471 1558 1661 1762 1647 1558 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.3 37.5 38.8 40.1 41.3 42.4 43.4 44.1 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 46.9 45.9 45.0 44.0 41.9 39.5 37.3 35.1 33.0 31.0 29.5 28.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 742 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -48. -52. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 33. 40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -36. -41. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -37. -42. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 21.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 2.88 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)