* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 55 51 46 41 37 32 28 25 21 17 V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 55 51 46 41 37 32 28 25 21 17 SHEAR (KTS) 33 29 29 27 28 30 34 34 28 30 30 26 17 SHEAR DIR 273 270 260 255 243 242 232 231 231 259 308 302 322 SST (C) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.6 19.9 19.2 18.5 17.6 16.4 15.9 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 91 90 89 86 84 82 80 78 76 75 74 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -57.9 -58.6 -59.8 -61.3 -63.8 -65.1 -65.7 -65.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 41 46 45 43 51 50 54 54 64 48 48 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 4 4 8 12 15 8 31 6 -7 11 4 850 MB VORT 56 48 48 42 48 40 27 1 -21 -90 -157 -254 -244 LAND (KM) 1457 1439 1427 1420 1419 1443 1492 1546 1608 1705 1742 1595 1486 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.9 35.4 35.9 36.4 37.6 38.8 39.8 40.8 41.8 42.8 43.5 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 46.1 45.0 44.0 43.0 40.6 38.3 36.5 34.8 32.8 30.5 28.8 27.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 751 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -28. -35. -42. -49. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 31. 38. 46. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. -43. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -33. -37. -40. -44. -48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 21.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 2.73 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)