* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 52 46 40 35 29 25 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 52 46 40 35 29 25 21 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 27 28 29 28 32 32 35 29 33 32 21 25 14 SHEAR DIR 273 256 255 246 246 237 235 235 240 270 327 340 357 SST (C) 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.4 20.9 20.4 19.9 19.1 18.7 18.8 18.7 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 91 91 89 87 86 84 82 80 81 80 80 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -57.4 -58.5 -60.1 -62.2 -64.4 -65.3 -64.3 -63.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 500-300 MB RH 41 41 41 42 44 46 45 47 56 56 44 30 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 1 7 12 4 12 14 11 -4 -16 -11 -9 850 MB VORT 59 60 56 56 42 39 -2 -31 -59 -109 -178 -273 -220 LAND (KM) 1475 1473 1478 1485 1499 1581 1662 1745 1839 1942 1859 1814 1797 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.9 35.3 35.8 36.2 36.8 37.5 38.3 38.9 39.0 38.3 38.4 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 45.1 44.0 42.9 41.8 39.4 37.2 35.1 33.2 31.7 30.6 30.1 30.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 793 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -28. -35. -41. -48. -52. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 32. 39. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -15. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -39. -43. -48. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -30. -36. -40. -44. -49. -53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 21.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 2.74 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)