* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 53 46 40 36 31 26 22 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 53 46 40 36 31 26 22 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 27 27 30 27 31 30 26 24 28 22 26 28 SHEAR DIR 261 259 248 252 253 241 239 233 240 291 301 335 333 SST (C) 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.1 21.0 20.7 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 92 91 90 88 88 87 86 87 88 88 88 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.4 -55.3 -56.4 -57.5 -57.9 -59.0 -61.0 -62.5 -62.6 -61.9 -62.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 500-300 MB RH 42 44 43 44 47 47 44 41 46 45 34 27 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 4 15 14 5 4 6 0 -5 -8 -9 -26 850 MB VORT 54 50 47 34 36 32 37 27 -17 -74 -154 -238 -184 LAND (KM) 1518 1548 1585 1633 1687 1816 1958 2064 2025 1999 1979 1966 1957 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.5 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.4 35.0 34.7 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 43.8 42.5 41.2 39.8 37.3 34.8 33.2 32.5 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 748 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -27. -34. -40. -46. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 33. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -19. -25. -29. -34. -38. -42. -49. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -25. -29. -34. -39. -43. -50. -55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 2.77 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)