* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 61 57 49 41 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 61 57 49 41 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 28 31 29 29 35 32 30 26 22 26 33 35 SHEAR DIR 249 247 247 248 241 241 237 246 251 285 310 331 311 SST (C) 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 92 91 91 89 89 89 90 91 91 93 96 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -55.1 -55.8 -56.6 -58.5 -60.7 -61.0 -60.3 -60.0 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 35 37 36 39 38 40 38 41 43 41 28 21 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 9 16 10 6 12 9 2 -1 -10 -23 -39 850 MB VORT 63 60 52 54 47 27 28 -3 -58 -104 -114 -126 -141 LAND (KM) 1570 1633 1702 1769 1840 1985 2080 2041 2067 2037 1900 1891 1983 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4 34.1 33.7 33.2 32.6 31.6 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 42.3 40.9 39.7 38.5 35.9 33.8 33.5 34.0 33.9 32.6 33.0 34.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -29. -36. -42. -49. -52. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -14. -23. -30. -37. -43. -50. -56. -62. -68. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -44. -51. -57. -64. -69. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 22.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 21.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)