* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 59 56 52 44 38 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 59 56 52 44 38 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 35 31 30 36 35 34 29 35 38 40 38 47 SHEAR DIR 244 248 252 243 240 239 238 258 271 286 297 323 322 SST (C) 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 93 92 92 91 89 90 91 91 93 95 99 100 102 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.8 -56.1 -57.3 -58.4 -58.9 -57.8 -56.3 -56.7 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 36 40 39 39 40 39 40 39 38 31 20 21 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 10 14 11 10 0 5 3 -1 -8 -13 -57 -38 850 MB VORT 50 44 43 42 41 28 31 7 -38 -52 -32 -60 -73 LAND (KM) 1652 1732 1817 1872 1930 2071 1982 1891 1887 1887 1870 1928 2060 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.0 33.3 32.6 31.7 30.5 28.9 27.9 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 40.9 39.4 38.3 37.1 35.2 33.2 32.5 32.9 33.5 33.9 34.9 36.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 95/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -13. -20. -26. -33. -38. -43. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -29. -35. -42. -49. -56. -64. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -9. -13. -21. -27. -34. -42. -50. -58. -66. -72. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 21.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 3.00 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)