* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 47 43 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 47 43 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 32 30 34 38 32 34 32 35 36 44 49 51 SHEAR DIR 250 252 245 237 241 234 251 259 280 294 315 317 309 SST (C) 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 91 90 90 91 91 93 97 100 104 110 115 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.9 -55.8 -56.4 -57.2 -58.0 -57.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 37 39 39 39 40 41 41 41 33 23 27 21 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 17 6 3 5 9 12 2 -11 -23 -35 -52 -26 850 MB VORT 30 46 41 36 22 7 11 -9 3 6 -1 -12 -29 LAND (KM) 1701 1770 1843 1915 1989 2101 1951 1874 1876 1956 2104 2314 2281 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2 34.1 33.7 33.0 31.6 29.7 27.9 26.4 24.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 39.9 38.6 37.5 36.4 34.4 33.0 32.8 33.6 35.2 37.1 39.4 41.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 696 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -40. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -22. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -26. -33. -39. -46. -52. -60. -68. -76. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -17. -25. -31. -38. -46. -53. -61. -70. -78. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 21.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.04 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 2.51 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)