* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 63 57 48 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 63 57 48 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 31 36 34 34 31 32 40 38 47 49 47 53 SHEAR DIR 250 243 240 241 232 233 257 269 290 306 310 297 299 SST (C) 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 90 90 90 91 92 95 99 103 110 116 126 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -55.7 -56.0 -55.9 -57.1 -57.5 -57.5 -55.7 -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 34 37 35 37 35 39 39 33 26 22 20 18 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 7 0 2 1 7 0 -4 -18 -52 -46 -6 -39 850 MB VORT 47 44 37 29 25 26 12 0 -3 5 0 -19 -41 LAND (KM) 1778 1860 1944 1997 2052 2024 1904 1935 2086 2234 2365 2243 1931 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.2 34.0 34.0 34.0 33.5 32.1 30.6 29.0 27.0 24.7 22.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 38.6 37.3 36.4 35.5 33.6 32.9 34.0 36.2 38.3 39.9 42.5 45.7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 705 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -30. -38. -44. -50. -52. -53. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -23. -28. -34. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -18. -27. -36. -45. -56. -69. -82. -93.-102. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -12. -18. -27. -36. -46. -57. -71. -84. -94.-103. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 21.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 3.00 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)