* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 64 59 55 46 37 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 64 59 55 46 37 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 36 34 33 31 34 39 36 37 46 46 48 50 SHEAR DIR 238 236 241 234 228 247 258 280 298 314 314 292 294 SST (C) 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.2 25.1 25.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 91 90 90 91 91 91 95 98 100 104 111 118 127 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -56.5 -57.3 -56.5 -53.7 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 7 500-300 MB RH 33 35 37 38 37 40 39 36 22 24 17 20 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 5 6 0 4 7 1 -7 -25 -59 -44 -8 -5 850 MB VORT 47 57 42 38 36 22 3 15 -4 17 6 -5 -24 LAND (KM) 1843 1930 2018 2087 2084 1973 1956 2026 2117 2234 2373 2186 1877 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.1 33.9 33.8 33.7 32.7 30.9 29.4 28.2 26.5 24.1 22.1 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 37.4 36.2 35.2 34.2 33.4 34.1 35.4 36.8 38.4 40.0 42.5 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 701 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -45. -47. -48. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -23. -28. -35. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -32. -42. -53. -66. -78. -89. -98. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -11. -15. -24. -33. -42. -54. -67. -80. -90. -99. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 21.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 20.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 2.77 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)