* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 49 45 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 49 45 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 34 32 30 31 29 32 31 35 52 45 50 55 SHEAR DIR 234 235 232 228 231 253 282 304 312 322 309 283 280 SST (C) 21.6 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 90 89 90 91 91 92 94 97 100 107 114 121 128 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.1 -56.7 -56.7 -57.3 -57.7 -56.1 -54.2 -54.3 -55.6 -54.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 7 500-300 MB RH 30 35 35 38 42 41 33 26 25 23 23 24 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 3 0 3 7 4 -8 -7 -48 -46 -17 -18 -9 850 MB VORT 42 26 27 20 25 11 -25 -16 -8 2 -3 -23 -26 LAND (KM) 1889 1952 2017 2100 2071 1999 2064 2155 2253 2414 2369 2096 1863 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.3 34.2 33.8 33.4 32.3 31.4 29.9 27.9 25.8 24.0 22.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 36.8 35.8 35.0 34.2 33.9 35.1 36.6 38.3 40.3 42.5 44.5 46.3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 694 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -27. -32. -37. -41. -42. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -13. -19. -25. -32. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -14. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -28. -36. -44. -53. -64. -73. -81. -90. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -11. -16. -20. -28. -36. -44. -54. -66. -75. -83. -91. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 21.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 2.14 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)