* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 54 49 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 54 49 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 33 32 31 33 34 32 34 39 50 55 50 56 59 SHEAR DIR 238 235 231 235 249 261 296 302 320 319 299 290 286 SST (C) 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 90 91 91 91 92 94 96 99 104 109 114 120 126 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.6 -56.3 -56.2 -56.4 -57.8 -56.9 -54.1 -53.1 -55.4 -55.5 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 35 36 39 40 40 40 31 21 24 26 25 21 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 0 4 7 7 5 -6 -25 -45 -18 -1 -12 -7 850 MB VORT 32 38 30 24 22 0 -5 3 10 -10 -27 -39 -64 LAND (KM) 1988 2067 2123 2063 2003 1995 2063 2145 2271 2430 2384 2139 1907 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.7 33.4 33.0 32.6 31.6 30.1 28.5 26.9 25.3 24.0 22.4 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 35.8 34.8 34.3 33.8 34.2 35.5 37.0 38.7 40.5 42.2 44.0 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 110/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 697 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -40. -41. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -14. -21. -26. -33. -41. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -16. -23. -32. -42. -54. -67. -78. -89. -99. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -32. -42. -55. -69. -80. -90.-100. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 21.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.20 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.50 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)