* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EPSILON 12/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 54 49 42 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 54 49 42 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 33 33 33 31 36 36 45 56 52 50 46 53 SHEAR DIR 235 228 234 249 253 278 304 324 318 317 296 283 281 SST (C) 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 89 90 90 91 92 96 99 102 106 111 118 126 132 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.7 -57.0 -56.8 -55.3 -53.8 -54.8 -55.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 31 34 38 36 38 28 23 24 24 24 24 18 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 9 9 4 -1 -15 -69 -42 -7 -6 -6 6 850 MB VORT 40 23 22 11 10 -4 0 13 -1 -9 -45 -48 -48 LAND (KM) 2069 2131 2063 2027 1990 2031 2136 2254 2382 2400 2144 1891 1668 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 33.5 33.2 32.7 32.1 30.6 29.1 27.5 25.6 23.9 22.3 20.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 34.9 34.2 34.1 33.9 34.9 36.7 38.4 40.0 41.7 43.7 45.7 47.7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -39. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -19. -26. -32. -38. -44. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -32. -43. -57. -70. -82. -91.-100. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -32. -44. -58. -71. -83. -93.-102. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPSILON 12/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 21.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)